Browsing by keyword "Terminally Ill"
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Nursing home residence confounds gender differences in Medicare utilization an example of Simpson's paradoxBACKGROUND: Gender differences in health care utilization in older Americans may be confounded by nursing home residence. Medicare data contain several files that can be used to create a measure of nursing home residence, but prior work has not addressed which best account for potential confounding. Simpson's paradox occurs when aggregated data support a different conclusion from what the disaggregated data show. We describe such a paradox that appeared when we sharpened our definition of "nursing home residence" while examining gender differences in Medicare utilization at the end of life. METHODS: To understand gender-specific health care utilization at the end of life, we conducted a retrospective analysis of a national random sample of Medicare beneficiaries aged 66 or older who died in 2001 with Parts A and B data for 18 months before death. We sought to associate each of total hospital days and costs during the final 6 months of life with numbers of primary care physician visits in the 12 preceding months. In addition to demographics, comorbidities, and geography, "nursing home residence" was a potential confounder, which we imputed in two ways: 1) from skilled nursing facility bills in the Part A Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MedPAR) file; and 2) from Berenson-Eggers-Type-of-Service codes indicating widely spaced doctor visits in nursing homes obtained from Medicare's carrier file. CONCLUSION: Gender differences in Medicare utilization are strongly confounded by nursing home resident status, which can be imputed well from Medicare's carrier file, but not MedPAR. Inc. All rights reserved.
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Using the case mix of pressure ulcer healing to evaluate nursing home performancePressure ulcer healing is an important quality measure for nursing homes, but the factors that predict healing have not been well studied. Using the Minimum Data Set, the authors identified candidate variables for a logistic regression, risk-adjustment model to predict ulcer healing. The authors then assessed model discrimination and calibration. Finally, the authors compared unadjusted with risk-adjusted performance for the individual facilities within a nursing home chain. Significant predictors of healing included mobility in bed, presence of a stage 2 ulcer (compared with a stage 4 ulcer), absence of paraplegia and quadriplegia, and absence of end-stage illness. The model C statistic was 0.67, and the calibration was acceptable. Judgments about nursing performance varied in 2 cases depending upon whether unadjusted or risk-adjusted performance was used. The model that the authors developed contains credible predictors of healing. Pressure ulcer healing may be one of many indicators used to evaluate nursing home quality.