PURPOSE: Little is known about age-related differences in risk factors for cigarette smoking initiation. We identified predictors of initiation in early, middle, and late adolescence from among sociodemographic factors, indicators of smoking in the social environment, psychological characteristics, lifestyle indicators, and perceived need for cigarettes. METHODS: Data were drawn from a longitudinal study of 1,801 children recruited at age 10-11 years from 29 elementary schools in Montreal, Canada. Multivariable logistic regression within a generalized estimating equations framework was used to identify predictors among never smokers across three 2-year windows: age 11-13 years (n = 1,221); age 13-15 years (n = 737); and age 15-17 years (n = 690). RESULTS: Among the 18 risk factors investigated, two differed across age. Friends' smoking, a strong risk factor in early adolescence (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 5.78 [3.90-8.58]), lost potency in late adolescence (1.83 [1.31-2.57]). Depressive symptoms, a risk factor in early and middle adolescence (1.60 [1.26-2.02] and 1.92 [1.45-2.54], respectively), were inversely associated in late adolescence (.76 [.58-1.00]). Sex, TV viewing, and weight-related goals were not associated with initiation at any age. All other factors were significant in two or three age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Most risk factors for smoking initiation were stable across age. Tobacco control interventions may be robust for risk factors across age groups and may not need adjustment. At all ages, interventions should focus on eliminating smoking in the social environment and on reducing the availability of tobacco products.

CONTEXT: The onset of cigarette smoking typically occurs during childhood or early adolescence. Nicotine dependence symptoms can manifest soon after onset, contributing to sustained, long-term smoking. Previous reviews have not clarified the determinants of onset. EVIDENCE ACQUISITION: In 2015, a systematic review of the literature in PubMed and EMBASE was undertaken to identify peer-reviewed prospective longitudinal studies published between January 1984 and August 2015 that investigated predictors of cigarette smoking onset among youth aged < 18 years who had never smoked. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Ninety-eight conceptually different potential predictors were identified in 53 studies. An increased risk of smoking onset was consistently (i.e., in four or more studies) associated with increased age/grade, lower SES, poor academic performance, sensation seeking or rebelliousness, intention to smoke in the future, receptivity to tobacco promotion efforts, susceptibility to smoking, family members' smoking, having friends who smoke, and exposure to films, whereas higher self-esteem and high parental monitoring/supervision of the child appeared to protect against smoking onset. Methodologic weaknesses were identified in numerous studies, including failure to account for attrition or for clustering in samples, and misidentification of potential confounders, which may have led to biased estimates of associations. CONCLUSIONS: Predictors of smoking onset for which there is robust evidence should be considered in the design of interventions to prevent first puff in order to optimize their effectiveness. Future research should seek to define onset clearly as the transition from never use to first use (e.g., first few puffs).