The GRACE Risk Score is a well-validated tool for estimating short- and long-term risk in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). GRACE Risk Score 2.0 substitutes several variables that may be unavailable to clinicians and, thus, limit use of the GRACE Risk Score. GRACE Risk Score 2.0 performed well in the original GRACE cohort. We sought to validate its performance in a contemporary multiracial ACS cohort, in particular in black patients with ACS. We evaluated the performance of the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 simplified algorithm for predicting 1-year mortality in 2,131 participants in Transitions, Risks, and Actions in Coronary Events Center for Outcomes Research and Education (TRACE-CORE), a multiracial cohort of patients discharged alive after an ACS in 2011 to 2013 from 6 hospitals in Massachusetts and Georgia. The median age of study participants was 61 years, 67% were men, and 16% were black. Half (51%) of the patients experienced a non-ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and 18% STEMI. Eighty patients (3.8%) died within 12 months of discharge. The GRACE Risk Score 2.0 simplified algorithm demonstrated excellent model discrimination for predicting 1-year mortality after hospital discharge in the TRACE-CORE cohort (c-index = 0.77). The c-index was 0.94 in patients with STEMI, 0.78 in those with NSTEMI, and 0.87 in black patients with ACS. In conclusion, the GRACE Risk Score 2.0 simplified algorithm for predicting 1-year mortality exhibited excellent model discrimination across the spectrum of ACS types and racial/ethnic subgroups and, thus, may be a helpful tool to guide routine clinical care for patients with ACS.

Objective Smoking has been shown to be a risk factor for heart disease. However, it was recently reported that despite the evolution in therapy for acute coronary syndrome (ACS), smokers have not demonstrated improved outcomes. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the temporal trends in the treatments and outcomes across a broad spectrum of ACS patients (STEMI and non-ST-elevation ACS [NSTEACS]) according to smoking status on presentation in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). Methods Our cohort was stratified into 3 groups: current smokers, former smokers and never smokers. We evaluated trends in demographics, treatment modalities and outcomes in these 3 groups from 1999 to 2007. Results The study population comprised a total of 63,015 patients admitted to hospital with an ACS and with identifiable baseline smoking status. Smokers presented with STEMI more often than non-smokers. There was an unadjusted decline in 30-day mortality in all 3 groups. However, the adjusted decline was not statistically significant among current smokers (HR = 0.98 per study year, 95% CI 0.94–1.01, p = 0.20). A subgroup analysis of 22,894 STEMI patients demonstrated no reduction in annual adjusted 30-day mortality rates among smokers (HR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.96–1.06 (Table 5), whereas former and never smokers' mortality declined. Conclusions Over the years 1999–2007, 30-day mortality declined in patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome. However, smokers presenting with STEMI did not demonstrate a reduction in mortality.

Increased fracture risk has been associated with weight loss in postmenopausal women, but the time course over which this occurs has not been established. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb (4.5 kg) in postmenopausal women on fracture risk at multiple sites up to 5 years after weight loss. Using data from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW), we analyzed the relationships between self-reported unintentional weight loss of ≥10 lb at baseline, year 2, or year 3 and incident clinical fracture in the years after weight loss. Complete data were available in 40,179 women (mean age ± SD 68 ± 8.3 years). Five-year cumulative fracture rate was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and adjusted hazard ratios for weight loss as a time-varying covariate were calculated from Cox multiple regression models. Unintentional weight loss at baseline was associated with a significantly increased risk of fracture of the clavicle, wrist, spine, rib, hip, and pelvis for up to 5 years after weight loss. Adjusted hazard ratios showed a significant association between unintentional weight loss and fracture of the hip, spine, and clavicle within 1 year of weight loss, and these associations were still present at 5 years. These findings demonstrate increased fracture risk at several sites after unintentional weight loss in postmenopausal women. This increase is found as early as 1 year after weight loss, emphasizing the need for prompt fracture risk assessment and appropriate management to reduce fracture risk in this population. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

BACKGROUND: While prior work has suggested that a high-grade atrioventricular block (HAVB) in the setting of an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is associated with in-hospital death, limited information is available on the incidence of, and death associated with, HAVB in ACS patients receiving contemporary management. METHODS AND RESULTS: The incidence of HAVB was determined within The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE). The clinical characteristics, in-hospital therapies, and outcomes were compared between patients with and without HAVB. Factors associated with death in patients with HAVB were determined. A total of 59 229 patients with ACS between 1999 and 2007 were identified; 2.9% of patients had HAVB at any point during the index hospitalization; 22.7% of whom died in hospital [adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 4.2, 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.6-4.9, P < 0.001]. The association between HAVB and in-hospital death varied with type of ACS [OR: ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) = 3.0; non-STEMI = 6.4; unstable angina = 8.2, P for interaction < 0.001]. High-grade atrioventricular block present at the time of presentation to hospital (vs. occurring in-hospital) and early (12 h or no intervention) were associated with improved in-hospital survival, whereas temporary pacemaker insertion was not. Patients with HAVB surviving to discharge had similar adjusted survival at 6 months compared with those without HAVB. A reduction in the rate of, but not in-hospital mortality associated with, HAVB was noted over the study period. CONCLUSION: Although the incidence of HAVB is low and decreasing, this complication continues to have a high risk of in-hospital death.

CONTEXT: Several fracture prediction models that combine fractures at different sites into a composite outcome are in current use. However, to the extent individual fracture sites have differing risk factor profiles, model discrimination is impaired. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to improve model discrimination by developing a 5-year composite fracture prediction model for fracture sites that display similar risk profiles. DESIGN: This was a prospective, observational cohort study. SETTING: The study was conducted at primary care practices in 10 countries. PATIENTS: Women aged 55 years or older participated in the study. INTERVENTION: Self-administered questionnaires collected data on patient characteristics, fracture risk factors, and previous fractures. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The main outcome is time to first clinical fracture of hip, pelvis, upper leg, clavicle, or spine, each of which exhibits a strong association with advanced age. RESULTS: Of four composite fracture models considered, model discrimination (c index) is highest for an age-related fracture model (c index of 0.75, 47 066 women), and lowest for Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) major fracture and a 10-site model (c indices of 0.67 and 0.65). The unadjusted increase in fracture risk for an additional 10 years of age ranges from 80% to 180% for the individual bones in the age-associated model. Five other fracture sites not considered for the age-associated model (upper arm/shoulder, rib, wrist, lower leg, and ankle) have age associations for an additional 10 years of age from a 10% decrease to a 60% increase. CONCLUSIONS: After examining results for 10 different bone fracture sites, advanced age appeared the single best possibility for uniting several different sites, resulting in an empirically based composite fracture risk model.

OBJECTIVES: Risk scores are recommended in guidelines to facilitate the management of patients who present with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Internationally, such scores are not systematically used because they are not easy to apply and some risk indicators are not available at first presentation. We aimed to derive and externally validate a more accurate version of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score for predicting the risk of death or death/myocardial infarction (MI) both acutely and over the longer term. The risk score was designed to be suitable for acute and emergency clinical settings and usable in electronic devices. DESIGN AND SETTING: The GRACE risk score (2.0) was derived in 32 037 patients from the GRACE registry (14 countries, 94 hospitals) and validated externally in the French registry of Acute ST-elevation and non-ST-elevation MI (FAST-MI) 2005. PARTICIPANTS: Patients presenting with ST-elevation and non-ST elevation ACS and with long-term outcomes. OUTCOME MEASURES: The GRACE Score (2.0) predicts the risk of short-term and long-term mortality, and death/MI, overall and in hospital survivors. RESULTS: For key independent risk predictors of death (1 year), non-linear associations (vs linear) were found for age (p CONCLUSIONS: The updated GRACE risk score has better discrimination and is easier to use than the previous score based on linear associations. GRACE Risk (2.0) performed equally well acutely and over the longer term and can be used in a variety of clinical settings to aid management decisions.

The purposes of this study were to examine fracture risk profiles at specific bone sites, and to understand why model discrimination using clinical risk factors is generally better in hip fracture models than in models that combine hip with other bones. Using 3-year data from the GLOW study (54,229 women with more than 4400 total fractures), we present Cox regression model results for 10 individual fracture sites, for both any and first-time fracture, among women aged >/=55 years. Advanced age is the strongest risk factor in hip (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.3 per 10-year increase), pelvis (HR = 1.8), upper leg (HR = 1.8), and clavicle (HR = 1.7) models. Age has a weaker association with wrist (HR = 1.1), rib (HR = 1.2), lower leg (not statistically significant), and ankle (HR = 0.81) fractures. Greater weight is associated with reduced risk for hip, pelvis, spine, and wrist, but higher risk for first lower leg and ankle fractures. Prior fracture of the same bone, although significant in nine of 10 models, is most strongly associated with spine (HR = 6.6) and rib (HR = 4.8) fractures. Past falls are important in all but spine models. Model c indices are >/=0.71 for hip, pelvis, upper leg, spine, clavicle, and rib, but

BACKGROUND: CABG and PCI are effective means for revascularization of patients with multi-vessel coronary artery disease, but previous studies have not focused on treatment of patients that first undergo primary PCI. METHODS: Among patients enrolled in the global registry of acute coronary events (GRACE), clinical outcomes for patients presenting with STEMI treated with primary PCI were compared according to whether residual stenoses were treated medically, surgically, or with staged PCI. Clinical characteristics and data pertaining to major adverse cardiac events during hospitalization and 6 months after discharge were collected. RESULTS: Of the 1,705 patients included, 1,345 (79%) patients were treated medically, 303 (18%) underwent staged PCI, and 57 (3.3%) underwent CABG following primary PCI. Hospital mortality was lowest among patients treated with staged PCI (Medical = 5.7%; PCI = 0.7%; CABG = 3.5%; P < 0.001 [PCI vs. Medical]), a finding that persisted after risk adjustment (Odds Ratio PCI vs. Medical 5 0.16, [0.04-0.68]; P 5 0.01). Six month postdischarge mortality likewise was lowest in the staged PCI group (Medical = 3.1%; PCI = 0.8%; CABG = 4.0%; P = 0.04 [PCI vs. Medical]). Patients revascularized surgically were rehospitalized less frequently (Medical = 20%; PCI = 19%; CABG = 6.3%; P < 0.05) and underwent fewer unscheduled procedures (Medical 5 9.8%; PCI = 10.0%; CABG = 0.0%; P < 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this multinational registry demonstrate that hospital mortality in patients who undergo staged percutaneous revascularization of multivessel coronary disease following primary PCI is very low. Patients undergoing CABG following primary PCI are hospitalized less frequently and undergo fewer unplanned catheter-based procedures.

AIMS: To determine the incidence and factors associated with heart rupture (HR) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. METHODS AND RESULTS: Among 60 198 patients, 273 (0.45%) had HR (free wall rupture, n = 118; ventricular septal rupture, n = 155). Incidence was 0.9% for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), 0.17% for non-STEMI, and 0.25% for unstable angina. Hospital mortality was 58 vs. 4.5% in patients without HR (P < 0.001). The incidence was lower in STEMI patients with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) than in those without (0.7 vs. 1.1%; P = 0.01), but primary PCI was not independently related to HR in adjusted analysis (P = 0.20). Independent variables associated with HR included: ST-segment elevation (STE)/left bundle branch block; ST-segment deviation; female sex; previous stroke; positive initial cardiac biomarkers; older age; higher heart rate; systolic blood pressure/30 mmHg decrease. Conversely, previous MI and the use of low-molecular-weight heparin and beta-blockers during first 24 h were identified as protective factors for HR. CONCLUSION: The incidence of HR is low in patients with ACS, although its incidence is probably underestimated. Heart rupture occurs more frequently in ACS with STE and is associated with high hospital mortality. A number of variables are independently related to HR.

The incidence of thrombocytopenia after hospital admission, patient and treatment characteristics, and outcomes in patients enrolled in the prospective multinational GRACE were examined. Heparin (unfractionated or low molecular weight) and glycoprotein IIb/IIIa-inhibition can be associated with immune-mediated thrombocytopenia of clinical importance. The prevalence of thrombocytopenia in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACSs) in general and specifically related to these therapies and associated outcomes have been studied little outside of clinical trials. Patients with an ACS were stratified into 4 groups of those with heparin-induced thrombocytopenia (HIT), those with glycoprotein IIb/IIIa-associated thrombocytopenia (GAT), those with other thrombocytopenia (not diagnosed as HIT or associated with glycoprotein inhibitors), and those with no thrombocytopenia. From June 2000 to September 2007, a total of 52,647 patients with an ACS and information for platelet count were enrolled in GRACE. Of these, 152 (0.3%) were reported to develop HIT, 324 (0.6%) developed GAT, and 368 (0.7%) developed other thrombocytopenia. Patients with HIT, GAT, or other thrombocytopenia were significantly more likely to die in the hospital versus those without these diseases (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07 to 3.53; adjusted OR 3.45, 95% CI 2.35 to 5.05; and adjusted OR 2.83, 95% CI 1.97 to 4.06, respectively). They were also more likely to experience major bleeding, (re)infarction, or stroke. In conclusion, in this large multinational registry, 1.6% of patients with ACS were reported to develop thrombocytopenia, with only 0.3% being HIT. Regardless of whether patients had clinically recognized HIT, GAT, or other thrombocytopenia, all 3 groups had significantly higher rates of major bleeding, recurrent infarction, stroke, and death.