Objective: The purpose of this study was to present the design, model, and data analysis of an interrupted time series (ITS) model applied to evaluate the impact of health policy, systems, or environmental interventions using count outcomes. Simulation methods were used to conduct power and sample size calculations for these studies. Methods: We proposed the models and analyses of ITS designs for count outcomes using the Strengthening Translational Research in Diverse Enrollment (STRIDE) study as an example. The models we used were observation-driven models, which bundle a lagged term on the conditional mean of the outcome for a time series of count outcomes. Results: A simulation-based approach with ready-to-use computer programs was developed to calculate the sample size and power of two types of ITS models, Poisson and negative binomial, for count outcomes. Simulations were conducted to estimate the power of segmented autoregressive (AR) error models when autocorrelation ranged from -0.9 to 0.9, with various effect sizes. The power to detect the same magnitude of parameters varied largely, depending on the testing level change, the trend change, or both. The relationships between power and sample size and the values of the parameters were different between the two models. Conclusion: This article provides a convenient tool to allow investigators to generate sample sizes that will ensure sufficient statistical power when the ITS study design of count outcomes is implemented.

OBJECTIVE: To discuss the study design and data analysis for three-phase interrupted time series (ITS) studies to evaluate the impact of health policy, systems, or environmental interventions. Simulation methods are used to conduct power and sample size calculation for these studies. METHODS: We consider the design and analysis of three-phase ITS studies using a study funded by National Institutes of Health as an exemplar. The design and analysis of both one-arm and two-arm three-phase ITS studies are introduced. RESULTS: A simulation-based approach, with ready-to-use computer programs, was developed to determine the power for two types of three-phase ITS studies. Simulations were conducted to estimate the power of segmented autoregressive (AR) error models when autocorrelation ranged from -0.9 to 0.9 with various effect sizes. The power increased as the sample size or the effect size increased. The power to detect the same effect sizes varied largely, depending on testing level change, trend changes, or both. CONCLUSION: This article provides a convenient tool for investigators to generate sample sizes to ensure sufficient statistical power when three-phase ITS study design is implemented.