BACKGROUND: A better understanding of the extent to which prior occurrences of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and major depressive episode (MDE) predict psychopathological reactions to subsequent traumas might be useful in targeting posttraumatic preventive interventions. METHODS: Data come from 1306 patients presenting to 29 U.S. emergency departments (EDs) after a motor vehicle collision (MVC) in the advancing understanding of recovery after trauma study. Patients completed self-reports in the ED and 2-weeks, 8-weeks, and 3-months post-MVC. Associations of pre-MVC probable PTSD and probable MDE histories with subsequent 3-months post-MVC probable PTSD and probable MDE were examined along with mediation through intervening peritraumatic, 2-, and 8-week disorders. RESULTS: 27.6% of patients had 3-month post-MVC probable PTSD and/or MDE. Pre-MVC lifetime histories of these disorders were not only significant (relative risk = 2.6-7.4) but were dominant (63.1% population attributable risk proportion [PARP]) predictors of this 3-month outcome, with 46.6% prevalence of the outcome among patients with pre-MVC disorder histories versus 9.9% among those without such histories. The associations of pre-MVC lifetime disorders with the 3-month outcome were mediated largely by 2- and 8-week probable PTSD and MDE (PARP decreasing to 22.8% with controls for these intervening disorders). Decomposition showed that pre-MVC lifetime histories predicted both onset and persistence of these intervening disorders as well as the higher conditional prevalence of the 3-month outcome in the presence of these intervening disorders. CONCLUSIONS: Assessments of pre-MVC PTSD and MDE histories and follow-ups at 2 and 8 weeks could help target early interventions for psychopathological reactions to MVCs.

Importance: A substantial proportion of the 40 million people in the US who present to emergency departments (EDs) each year after traumatic events develop posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) or major depressive episode (MDE). Accurately identifying patients at high risk in the ED would facilitate the targeting of preventive interventions. Objectives: To develop and validate a prediction tool based on ED reports after a motor vehicle collision to predict PTSD or MDE 3 months later. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Advancing Understanding of Recovery After Trauma (AURORA) study is a longitudinal study that examined adverse posttraumatic neuropsychiatric sequalae among patients who presented to 28 US urban EDs in the immediate aftermath of a traumatic experience. Enrollment began on September 25, 2017. The 1003 patients considered in this diagnostic/prognostic report completed 3-month assessments by January 31, 2020. Each patient received a baseline ED assessment along with follow-up self-report surveys 2 weeks, 8 weeks, and 3 months later. An ensemble machine learning method was used to predict 3-month PTSD or MDE from baseline information. Data analysis was performed from November 1, 2020, to May 31, 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures: The PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 was used to assess PTSD and the Patient Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System Depression Short-Form 8b to assess MDE. Results: A total of 1003 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 34.5 [24-43] years; 715 [weighted 67.9%] female; 100 [weighted 10.7%] Hispanic, 537 [weighted 52.7%] non-Hispanic Black, 324 [weighted 32.2%] non-Hispanic White, and 42 [weighted 4.4%] of non-Hispanic other race or ethnicity were included in this study. A total of 274 patients (weighted 26.6%) met criteria for 3-month PTSD or MDE. An ensemble machine learning model restricted to 30 predictors estimated in a training sample (patients from the Northeast or Midwest) had good prediction accuracy (mean [SE] area under the curve [AUC], 0.815 [0.031]) and calibration (mean [SE] integrated calibration index, 0.040 [0.002]; mean [SE] expected calibration error, 0.039 [0.002]) in an independent test sample (patients from the South). Patients in the top 30% of predicted risk accounted for 65% of all 3-month PTSD or MDE, with a mean (SE) positive predictive value of 58.2% (6.4%) among these patients at high risk. The model had good consistency across regions of the country in terms of both AUC (mean [SE], 0.789 [0.025] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.809 [0.023] using the Midwest as the test sample) and calibration (mean [SE] integrated calibration index, 0.048 [0.003] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.024 [0.001] using the Midwest as the test sample; mean [SE] expected calibration error, 0.034 [0.003] using the Northeast as the test sample and 0.025 [0.001] using the Midwest as the test sample). The most important predictors in terms of Shapley Additive Explanations values were symptoms of anxiety sensitivity and depressive disposition, psychological distress in the 30 days before motor vehicle collision, and peritraumatic psychosomatic symptoms. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that a short set of questions feasible to administer in an ED can predict 3-month PTSD or MDE with good AUC, calibration, and geographic consistency. Patients at high risk can be identified in the ED for targeting if cost-effective preventive interventions are developed.

Background: Cross-sectional studies have found that individuals with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) exhibit deficits in autonomic functioning. While PTSD rates are twice as high in women compared to men, sex differences in autonomic functioning are relatively unknown among trauma-exposed populations. The current study used a prospective design to examine sex differences in posttraumatic autonomic functioning. Methods: 192 participants were recruited from emergency departments following trauma exposure (Mean age = 35.88, 68.2% female). Skin conductance was measured in the emergency department; fear conditioning was completed two weeks later and included measures of blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), and high frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV). PTSD symptoms were assessed 8 weeks after trauma. Results: 2-week systolic BP was significantly higher in men, while 2-week HR was significantly higher in women, and a sex by PTSD interaction suggested that women who developed PTSD demonstrated the highest HR levels. Two-week HF-HRV was significantly lower in women, and a sex by PTSD interaction suggested that women with PTSD demonstrated the lowest HF-HRV levels. Skin conductance response in the emergency department was associated with 2-week HR and HF-HRV only among women who developed PTSD. Conclusions: Our results indicate that there are notable sex differences in autonomic functioning among trauma-exposed individuals. Differences in sympathetic biomarkers (BP and HR) may have implications for cardiovascular disease risk given that sympathetic arousal is a mechanism implicated in this risk among PTSD populations. Future research examining differential pathways between PTSD and cardiovascular risk among men versus women is warranted.

OBJECTIVES: The Academy of Administrators in Academic Emergency Medicine Benchmark Survey of academic emergency departments (EDs) was conducted in 2017. We compared operational measures between pediatric and adult (defined as fewer than 5% pediatric visits) EDs based on survey data. Emergency departments in dedicated pediatric hospitals were not represented. METHODS: Measures included: (1) patient volumes, length of stay, and acuity; and 2) faculty staffing, productivity, and percent effort in academics. t Tests were used to compare continuous measures and inferences for categorical variables were made using Pearson chi test. RESULTS: The analysis included 17 pediatric and 52 adult EDs. We found a difference in the number of annual visits between adult (median, 66,275; interquartile range [IQR], 56,184-77,702) and pediatric EDs (median, 25,416; IQR, 19,840-29,349) (P < 0.0001). Mean "arrivals per faculty clinical hour" and "total arrivals per treatment space" showed no differences. The proportion of visits (1) arriving by emergency medical services and (2) for behavioral health were significantly higher in adult EDs (both P < 0.0001). The mean length of stay in hours for "all" patients was significantly longer in adult (5.4; IQR, 5.0-6.6) than in pediatric EDs (3.5; IQR, 2.9-4.3; P = 0.017). A similar difference was found for "discharged" patients (P = 0.004). Emergency severity indices, professional evaluation and management codes, and hospitalization rates all suggest higher acuity in adult EDs (all P < 0.0001). There were no differences in mean work relative value units per patient or in the distribution of full time equivalent effort dedicated to academics. CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort, significant differences in operational measures exist between academic adult and pediatric EDs. No differences were found when considering per unit measures, such as arrivals per faculty clinical hour or per treatment space.

Each year millions of Americans present to the emergency department (ED) for care after a motor vehicle collision (MVC); the majority ( > 90%) are discharged to home after evaluation. Acute musculoskeletal pain is the norm in this population, and such patients are typically discharged to home with prescriptions for oral opioid analgesics or nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs). The influence of acute pain management on subsequent pain outcomes in this common ED population is unknown. We evaluated the effect of opioid analgesics vs NSAIDs initiated from the ED on the presence of moderate to severe musculoskeletal pain and ongoing opioid use at 6 weeks in a large cohort of adult ED patients presenting to the ED after MVC (n = 948). The effect of opioids vs NSAIDs was evaluated using an innovative quasi-experimental design method using propensity scores to account for covariate imbalances between the 2 treatment groups. No difference in risk for moderate to severe musculoskeletal pain at 6 weeks was observed between those discharged with opioid analgesics vs NSAIDs (risk difference = 7.2% [95% confidence interval: -5.2% to 19.5%]). However, at follow-up participants prescribed opioids were more likely than those prescribed NSAIDs to report use of prescription opioids medications at week 6 (risk difference = 17.5% [95% confidence interval: 5.8%-29.3%]). These results suggest that analgesic choice at ED discharge does not influence the development of persistent moderate to severe musculoskeletal pain 6 weeks after an MVC, but may result in continued use of prescription opioids. Supported by NIAMS R01AR056328 and AHRQ 5K12HS022998.