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Exploring consequences of simulation design for apparent performance of methods of meta-analysis

Kulinskaya, Elena
Hoaglin, David C
Bakbergenuly, Ilyas
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Abstract

Contemporary statistical publications rely on simulation to evaluate performance of new methods and compare them with established methods. In the context of random-effects meta-analysis of log-odds-ratios, we investigate how choices in generating data affect such conclusions. The choices we study include the overall log-odds-ratio, the distribution of probabilities in the control arm, and the distribution of study-level sample sizes. We retain the customary normal distribution of study-level effects. To examine the impact of the components of simulations, we assess the performance of the best available inverse-variance-weighted two-stage method, a two-stage method with constant sample-size-based weights, and two generalized linear mixed models. The results show no important differences between fixed and random sample sizes. In contrast, we found differences among data-generation models in estimation of heterogeneity variance and overall log-odds-ratio. This sensitivity to design poses challenges for use of simulation in choosing methods of meta-analysis.

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Kulinskaya E, Hoaglin DC, Bakbergenuly I. Exploring consequences of simulation design for apparent performance of methods of meta-analysis. Stat Methods Med Res. 2021 Jul;30(7):1667-1690. doi: 10.1177/09622802211013065. Epub 2021 Jun 10. PMID: 34110941; PMCID: PMC8411476. Link to article on publisher's site

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DOI
10.1177/09622802211013065
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34110941
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Copyright The Author(s) 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits any use, reproduction and distribution of the work without further permission provided the original work is attributed as specified on the SAGE and Open Access pages (https://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/open-access-at-sage).