Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Publication

Real-time spatiotemporal tracking of infectious outbreaks in confined environments with a host-pathogen agent-based system

Srinivasan, Suhas
King, Jeffrey
Collins, Jacob M
Colubri, Andres
Korkin, Dmitry
Citations
publications.citations-section.null.title:
Altmetric:
Authors
Srinivasan, Suhas
King, Jeffrey
Collins, Jacob M
Colubri, Andres
Korkin, Dmitry
Student Authors
Faculty Advisor
Academic Program
Document Type
Journal Article
Publication Date
2026-01-20
Subject Area
Embargo Expiration Date
Abstract

Deadly infection outbreaks in confined spaces, whether it is a COVID-19 outbreak on a cruise ship or measles and stomach flu outbreaks in schools, can be characterized by their rapid spread due to the abundance of common spaces, shared airways, and high population density. Preventing future outbreaks and developing efficient mitigation protocols can benefit from advanced computational modeling approaches. Here, we developed an agent-based modeling approach to study the spatiotemporal dynamics of an infection outbreak in a confined environment caused by a specific pathogen, and to determine effective containment protocols. The approach integrates the 3D geographic information system of a confined environment, behavior of the hosts, key biological parameters about the pathogen obtained from the experimental data, and the general mechanics of host-pathogen and pathogen-fomite interactions. To assess our approach, we applied it to the historical data of infectious outbreaks caused by norovirus, H1N1 influenza A, and SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Our AI-GIS Infection Dynamics (AGID) model accurately predicted daily infection numbers, correctly identified the day when the CDC vessel sanitation protocol would be triggered, singled out key biological parameters affecting the infection spread, and propose pathogen-specific changes to existing containment protocols. Our work advances the understanding of infection spread on cruise ships while offering insights applicable to other similar confined settings, such as nursing homes, schools, and hospitals. By providing a robust framework for real-time outbreak modeling, this study proposes more effective containment protocols and enhances our preparedness for managing infectious diseases and emerging pathogens in confined environments.

Source

Srinivasan S, King J, Collins JM, Colubri A, Korkin D. Real-time spatiotemporal tracking of infectious outbreaks in confined environments with a host-pathogen agent-based system. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2026 Jan 27;123(4):e2422574123. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2422574123. Epub 2026 Jan 20. PMID: 41557813.

Year of Medical School at Time of Visit
Sponsors
Dates of Travel
DOI
10.1073/pnas.2422574123
PubMed ID
41557813
Other Identifiers
Notes
Funding and Acknowledgements
Corresponding Author
Related Resources
Related Resources
Repository Citation
Rights
Copyright © 2026 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).