Background: Because obesity is associated with the risk of posttransplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM), the precise estimation of visceral fat mass before transplantation may be helpful. Herein, we addressed whether a deep-learning based volumetric fat quantification on pretransplant computed tomographic images predicted the risk of PTDM more precisely than body mass index (BMI).

Methods: We retrospectively included a total of 718 nondiabetic kidney recipients who underwent pretransplant abdominal computed tomography. The 2D (waist) and 3D (waist or abdominal) volumes of visceral, subcutaneous, and total fat masses were automatically quantified using the deep neural network. The predictability of the PTDM risk was estimated using a multivariate Cox model and compared among the fat parameters using the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs).

Results: PTDM occurred in 179 patients (24.9%) during the median follow-up period of 5 years (interquartile range, 2.5-8.6 years). All the fat parameters predicted the risk of PTDM, but the visceral and total fat volumes from 2D and 3D evaluations had higher AUROC values than BMI did, and the best predictor of PTDM was the 3D abdominal visceral fat volumes [AUROC, 0.688 (0.636-0.741)]. The addition of the 3D abdominal VF volume to the model with clinical risk factors increased the predictability of PTDM, but BMI did not.

Conclusions: A deep-learning based quantification of visceral fat volumes on computed tomographic images better predicts the risk of PTDM after kidney transplantation than BMI.