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Five-County Validation of the Indiana Risk Assessment System – Pretrial Assessment Tool (IRAS-PAT) using a Local Validation Approach

Lowder, Evan M.
Lawson, Spencer G.
Grommon, Eric
Ray, Brad R.
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Abstract

Local jurisdictions are increasingly using pretrial risk assessment instruments to assess risk of pretrial misconduct and inform release decisions. We adopted a local validation approach to examine the predictive validity of Indiana Risk Assessment System – Pretrial Assessment Tool (IRAS-PAT) assessments in 3,739 unique pretrial defendants across five Indiana counties. Jail, court, and pretrial risk assessment records were matched within each jurisdiction to examine pretrial misconduct outcomes (i.e., any arrest, any new arrest, and any failure to appear) during the case processing period. Area Under the Curve (AUC) estimates showed good-to-excellent levels of predictive accuracy for total scores for all outcomes (AUC Range: 0.67-0.72). Multivariable models showed defendants assessed at High (OR Range: 5.42-8.62) and Moderate (OR Range: 2.56-3.08) risk had higher rates of pretrial misconduct relative to those assessed at Low risk. Findings provide strong evidence for the predictive accuracy of IRAS-PAT assessments overall, though some item-level considerations are noted.

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Lowder, E. M., Lawson, S. G., Grommon, E., & Ray, B. R. (2020). Five-county validation of the Indiana Risk Assessment System–Pretrial Assessment Tool (IRAS-PAT) using a local validation approach. Justice Quarterly, 37(7), 1241-1260. DOI: 10.1080/07418825.2020.1829006

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10.1080/07418825.2020.1829006
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Funding and Acknowledgements
This work was funded by the Indiana Office of Court Services. All study authors received funding to complete this work. The findings and conclusions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Indiana Office of Court Services or the State of Indiana.
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© The Author(s). This is a PDF file of the authors' original manuscript for an article published by Taylor & Francis in Justice Quarterly on October 8, 2020, available at: https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2020.1829006. Posted as allowed by the publisher's guidelines on sharing versions of journal articles at https://authorservices.taylorandfrancis.com/research-impact/sharing-versions-of-journal-articles/.
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