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Spreading potential in disease relevant networks: Predicting centralities in rural Northeast Madagascar

DeSisto, Camille M M
Binder, Raquel A
Kauffman, Kayla
Barrett, Tyler M
Pender, Michelle
Kramer, Randall A
Soarimalala, Voahangy
Rabezara, Jean Yves
Rahary, Prisca
Moody, James
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Abstract

Heterogeneity in contact patterns can have marked effects on disease transmission, including through superspreading where few individuals drive most infections. Networks based on different types of human-human contacts quantify individuals' centrality, which can be used to identify individuals or sub-populations who are at increased risk of spreading disease. By understanding the predictors of centrality, high-risk individuals and sub-populations can be targeted to improve public health intervention strategies, even when detailed network data are unavailable. This study inferred transmission potential networks representing different pathogen transmission pathways among people living in rural villages of northeast Madagascar. We constructed four network types: social, close contact, household proximity, and environmental overlap using survey data and global positioning system (GPS) trackers. We then investigated how sociodemographic and anthropometric variables predicted different types of network centralities using multiple mixed effects linear models. Gender and wealth based on household material quality tended to be the most important sociodemographic predictors of centrality, but centrality outcomes varied by network type and had wide confidence intervals. Men tended to be more central to their environmental overlap network than women. Further, wealth based on household materials was an important, positive predictor of close contact network centrality. Gender and wealth were associated with centrality in transmission-potential networks but varied in their importance across different network types. Our study results suggest that targeted intervention efforts focused on diseases that are transmitted through shared environments (i.e., parasites shared through soil or water) or direct contact (i.e., respiratory infections) in similar agricultural settings should consider gender- and wealth-associated differences in contact patterns.

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DeSisto CMM, Binder RA, Kauffman K, Barrett TM, Pender M, Kramer RA, Soarimalala V, Rabezara JY, Rahary P, Moody J, Nunn CL. Spreading potential in disease relevant networks: Predicting centralities in rural Northeast Madagascar. PLOS Glob Public Health. 2026 Jan 28;6(1):e0005661. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0005661. PMID: 41604397; PMCID: PMC12851470.

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10.1371/journal.pgph.0005661
PubMed ID
41604397
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Copyright: © 2026 DeSisto et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.