Risk adjustment methods can affect perceptions of outcomes
Iezzoni, Lisa I. ; Shwartz, Michael ; Ash, Arlene S. ; Mackiernan, Yevgenia D. ; Hotchkin, Elizabeth K.
Citations
Student Authors
Faculty Advisor
Academic Program
UMass Chan Affiliations
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Publication Date
Keywords
Adult
Aged
Aged, 80 and over
*Data Interpretation, Statistical
Diagnosis-Related Groups
Hospital Mortality
Humans
Logistic Models
Medicaid
Medicare
Middle Aged
*Models, Statistical
Myocardial Infarction
*Outcome Assessment (Health Care)
Predictive Value of Tests
Risk Factors
*Severity of Illness Index
United States
Biostatistics
Epidemiology
Health Services Research
Subject Area
Embargo Expiration Date
Link to Full Text
Abstract
When comparing outcomes of medical care, it is essential to adjust for patient risk, including severity of illness. A variety of severity measures exist, but perceptions of outcomes may differ depending on how severity is defined. We used two severity-adjustment approaches to demonstrate that comparisons of outcomes across subgroups of patients can vary dramatically depending on how severity is assessed. We studied two approaches: model 1 was the admission MedisGroups score; model 2 was computed from age and 12 chronic conditions defined by diagnosis codes. Although common summary measures of model performance (R-squared and C) both suggested that model 1 is a better predictor of in-hospital death than model 2, the weaker model consistently produced more accurate expectations by payer class and age group. Using model 1 for severity adjustment suggested that Medicare patients did substantially worse than expected and Medicaid patients substantially better. In contrast, use of model 2 found Medicare patients doing as expected, but Medicaid patients faring poorly.
Source
Am J Med Qual. 1994 Summer;9(2):43-8. Link to article on publisher's site