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    High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries

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    Authors
    Dresser, Caleb J.
    Allison, Jeroan J.
    Broach, John
    Smith, Mary-Elise
    Milsten, Andrew
    UMass Chan Affiliations
    Department of Emergency Medicine
    Department of Quantitative Health Sciences
    School of Medicine
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Publication Date
    2016-12-01
    Keywords
    Emergency Medicine
    International Public Health
    
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    Link to Full Text
    https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2016.62
    Abstract
    OBJECTIVES: Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries. METHODS: Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations. RESULTS: Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP. CONCLUSIONS: Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).
    Source

    Disaster Med Public Health Prep. 2016 Dec;10(6):832-837. doi: 10.1017/dmp.2016.62. Epub 2016 Aug 30. Link to article on publisher's site

    DOI
    10.1017/dmp.2016.62
    Permanent Link to this Item
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14038/28443
    PubMed ID
    27572097
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    Link to Article in PubMed

    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1017/dmp.2016.62
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    T.H. Chan School of Medicine Student Publications
    UMass Chan Faculty and Researcher Publications
    Emergency Medicine Publications

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