Predictability of prescription drug expenditures for Medicare beneficiaries
UMass Chan AffiliationsMeyers Primary Care Institute
Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine
Aged, 80 and over
Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services
Health Services Research
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AbstractMCBS data are used to analyze the predictability of drug expenditures by Medicare beneficiaries. Predictors include demographic characteristics and measures of health status, the majority derived using CMS' diagnosis cost group/hierarchical condition category (DCG/HCC) risk-adjustment methodology. In prospective models, demographic variables explained 5 percent of the variation in drug expenditures. Adding health status measures raised this figure between 10 and 24 percent of the variation depending on the model configuration. Adding lagged drug expenditures more than doubled predictive power to 55 percent. These results are discussed in the context of forecasting, and risk adjustment for the proposed new Medicare drug benefit.
SourceHealth Care Financ Rev. 2003 Winter;25(2):37-46. Link to article on publisher's website
Permanent Link to this Itemhttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14038/36935
At the time of publication, Becky Briesacher was not yet affiliated with the University of Massachusetts Medical School.