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    Participation and crowd-out in a Medicare drug benefit: simulation estimates

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    Authors
    Shea, Dennis G.
    Stuart, Bruce
    Briesacher, Becky A.
    UMass Chan Affiliations
    Meyers Primary Care Institute
    Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Publication Date
    2004-05-06
    Keywords
    Aged
    Computer Simulation
    Cost Sharing
    Drug Costs
    Drug Prescriptions
    Forecasting
    Health Policy
    Health Services Needs and Demand
    Humans
    Insurance, Pharmaceutical Services
    Medicare
    Models, Econometric
    Patient Acceptance of Health Care
    Proportional Hazards Models
    Risk Assessment
    Health Services Research
    Primary Care
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    Abstract
    This article provides information on likely participation in the Medicare prescription drug plan and expected crowd-out. We use a microsimulation model based on data from the MCBS to estimate the costs and benefits of a Medicare drug plan, including the benefits from reductions in risk. The simulations are repeated using different combinations of benefits and subsidies. In addition, the simulations explore the effects of different behavioral parameters for moral hazard (the extent to which participants increase drug spending in response to reduced costs) and risk aversion (the extent to which participants would be willing to pay to avoid risk) to identify the impact of these factors on participation and crowd-out.
    Source
    Health Care Financ Rev. 2003 Winter;25(2):47-61. Link to article on publisher's website
    Permanent Link to this Item
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14038/36936
    PubMed ID
    15124377
    Notes

    At the time of publication, Becky Briesacher was not yet affiliated with the University of Massachusetts Medical School.

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