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    A Tool to Identify Adolescents at Risk of Cigarette Smoking Initiation

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    Authors
    Sylvestre, Marie-Pierre
    Hanusaik, Nancy
    Berger, David
    Dugas, Erika
    Pbert, Lori
    Winickoff, Jonathan
    O'Loughlin, Jennifer L.
    UMass Chan Affiliations
    UMass Worcester Prevention Research Center
    Center for Tobacco Treatment Research and Training
    Department of Quantitative Health Sciences, Division of Preventive and Behavioral Medicine
    Document Type
    Journal Article
    Publication Date
    2018-11-01
    Keywords
    Substance Use
    Smoking
    Preventive Medicine
    Behavioral Medicine
    Behavior and Behavior Mechanisms
    Community Health and Preventive Medicine
    Pediatrics
    Preventive Medicine
    Public Health Education and Promotion
    Substance Abuse and Addiction
    
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    Link to Full Text
    https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2017-3701
    Abstract
    OBJECTIVES: To describe the development of a prognostic tool to identify adolescents at risk for transitioning from never to ever smoking in the next year. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens study, a longitudinal investigation of adolescents (1999 to present). A total of 1294 students initially age 12 to 13 years were recruited from seventh-grade classes in 10 high schools in Montreal. Self-report questionnaire data were collected every 3 months during the 10-month school year over 5 years (1999-2005) until participants completed high school (n = 20 cycles). Prognostic variables for inclusion in the multivariable analyses were selected from 58 candidate predictors describing sociodemographic characteristics, smoking habits of family and friends, lifestyle factors, personality traits, and mental health. Cigarette smoking initiation was defined as taking even 1 puff on a cigarette for the first time, as measured in a 3-month recall of cigarette use completed in each cycle. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of cigarette smoking initiation was 16.3%. Data were partitioned into a training set for model-building and a testing set to evaluate the performance of the model. The final model included 12 variables (age, 4 worry or stress-related items, 1 depression-related item, 2 self-esteem items, and 4 alcohol- or tobacco-related variables). The model yielded a c-statistic of 0.77 and had good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: This short prognostic tool, which can be incorporated into busy clinical practice, was used to accurately identify adolescents at risk for cigarette smoking initiation.
    Source

    Pediatrics. 2018 Nov;142(5). pii: e20173701. doi: 10.1542/peds.2017-3701. Epub 2018 Oct 1. Link to article on publisher's site

    DOI
    10.1542/peds.2017-3701
    Permanent Link to this Item
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14038/44517
    PubMed ID
    30275237
    Related Resources

    Link to Article in PubMed

    ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
    10.1542/peds.2017-3701
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    UMass Worcester PRC Publications

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