Multi-institutional Nomogram Predicting Survival Free From Salvage Whole Brain Radiation After Radiosurgery in Patients With Brain Metastases
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Authors
Gorovets, DanielAyala-Peacock, Diandra
Tybor, David J.
Rava, Paul
Ebner, Daniel
Cielo, Deus
Noren, Georg
Wazer, David E.
Chan, Michael
Hepel, Jaroslaw T.
UMass Chan Affiliations
Department of Radiation OncologyDocument Type
Journal ArticlePublication Date
2017-02-01
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PURPOSE: Optimal patient selection for stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) as the initial treatment for brain metastases is complicated and controversial. This study aimed to develop a nomogram that predicts survival without salvage whole brain radiation therapy (WBRT) after upfront SRS. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Multi-institutional data were analyzed from 895 patients with 2095 lesions treated with SRS without prior or planned WBRT. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to identify independent pre-SRS predictors of WBRT-free survival, which were integrated to build a nomogram that was subjected to bootstrap validation. RESULTS: Median WBRT-free survival was 8 months (range, 0.1-139 months). Significant independent predictors for inferior WBRT-free survival were age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.1 for each 10-year increase), HER2(-) breast cancer (HR 1.6 relative to other histologic features), colorectal cancer (HR 1.4 relative to other histologic features), increasing number of brain metastases (HR 1.09, 1.32, 1.37, and 1.87 for 2, 3, 4, and 5+ lesions, respectively), presence of neurologic symptoms (HR 1.26), progressive systemic disease (HR 1.35), and increasing extracranial disease burden (HR 1.31 for oligometastatic and HR 1.56 for widespread). Additionally, HER2(+) breast cancer (HR 0.81) and melanoma (HR 1.11) trended toward significance. The independently weighted hazard ratios were used to create a nomogram to display estimated probabilities of 6-month and 12-month WBRT-free survival with a corrected Harrell's C concordance statistic of 0.62. CONCLUSIONS: Our nomogram can be used at initial evaluation to help select patients best suited for upfront SRS for brain metastases while reducing expense and morbidity in patients who derive minimal or no benefit.Source
Gorovets D, Ayala-Peacock D, Tybor DJ, Rava P, Ebner D, Cielo D, Norén G, Wazer DE, Chan M, Hepel JT. Multi-institutional Nomogram Predicting Survival Free From Salvage Whole Brain Radiation After Radiosurgery in Patients With Brain Metastases. Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys. 2017 Feb 1;97(2):246-253. doi: 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2016.09.043. Epub 2016 Oct 1. PMID: 28068233. Link to article on publisher's site
DOI
10.1016/j.ijrobp.2016.09.043Permanent Link to this Item
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14038/47905PubMed ID
28068233Related Resources
ae974a485f413a2113503eed53cd6c53
10.1016/j.ijrobp.2016.09.043