Increasing magic number and other trends in diagnostic radiology NRMP match data

Abstract

The magic number, or number of ranks needed to achieve a greater than 90 % chance of matching, has not been investigated for diagnostic radiology (DR). Somewhat reflective of a field's changing competitiveness, this individual metric can be useful for reassuring applicants or identifying a need to reach out to mentors. The NRMP's Charting Outcomes in the Match was accessed over the previous 10 cycles to assess changes to magic number and other match-related metrics. Over the last 10 cycles, there has been an increase in magic number for prospective radiologists. Based on the most 2022 recent report, the magic number was 14 compared to 5 and 2 in 2014 and 2016 respectively. Compared to the average US MD senior, those applying into DR were significantly more likely to match in 2014, 2016 and 2020 (p < 0.01 for all), and significantly less likely to match in 2018 and 2022 (p = 0.03 and p < 0.01, respectively). This trend has had important consequences for applicants and programs as the incentive to apply more widely grows. The increasing magic number demonstrates increasing competitiveness in the field, which might be due to a positive job market, changing medical student preferences, or increased access to radiology electives and mentors. The 2024 Charting Outcomes document will be the first to include data from a class almost entirely affected by the change to a pass/fail Step1 and the new preference signaling supplement. It is currently unclear how either change will affect the overall competitiveness of the field and the magic number.